It is the final fixture of the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup as Argentina faces Switzerland. Switzerland is looking to make the Semifinals for the first time in history, while Argentina looks to defend its World Cup crown. It is time to continue our World Cup odds series with an Argentina-Switzerland prediction and pick.
Argentina opened the World Cup by dominating the Group Stage and winning Group J. After a 3-0 win over Algeria and a 2-0 win against Austria, Argentina finally gave up a goal in their third fixture. Going into the third fixture, Argentina had already won their group, but still took the 3-1 victory over Jordan. This led to a Round of 32 fixture against tournament darling, Cape Verde. Lionel Messi scored his seventh goal of the tournament in the 29th minute, and it seemed like Argentina was in control. Cape Verde would tie the game in the 59th minute, and the game would remain tied, leading to extra time.
In extra time. Lisandro Martinez scored in the 92nd minute, in what seemed to be a game-winner, until Sidny Lopes Cabral scored in the 103rd minute to equalize the game. Argentina would score in the 111th minute on an own goal and hold on, as Argentina took a 3-2 victory in extra time over Cape Verde.
It was another miraculous performance for Argentina against Egypt. Yasser Ibrahim gave Egypt the lead in the 15th minute, but a penalty led to a Messi penalty kick, which would be saved. In the second half, Egypt looked to have taken a 2-0 lead, but a controversial VAR call brought back the goal. Regardless, Egypt took the 2-0 lead in the 67th minute. Argentina would mount the comeback, though. They scored twice before stoppage time, including another goal from Messi, to equalize the game. Then Enzo Fernandez scored two minutes into stoppage time in the second half to win the fixture.
Meanwhile, Switzerland did not start strong at the World Cup, drawing 1-1 against Qatar. Still, they would rally off back-to-back wins, with a 4-1 victory over Bosnia-Herzegovina and a 2-1 win over Canada, leading to Switzerland taking Group B. This led to a Round of 32 fixture against Algeria. Breel Embolo opened the game strong for Switzerland, with a goal in the tenth minute. Dan Ndoye added a goal in the second half as Switzerland defeated Algeria 2-0.
Switzerland would then face Colombia in the Round of 32. Switzerland struggled to create chances, having just two shots on goal throughout both regular time and extra time. They had an expected goal value of just .39. Still, the defense stepped up. Colombia had an expected goal value of 1.09 but did not find a goal. This led to the game being 0-0 after extra time and a penalty shootout ensuing. Switzerland would win on penalties, 4-3, to advance to the quarterfinals.
Argentina vs. Switzerland 2026 World Cup Odds
Note: All odds are for 90 minutes plus stoppage time and does not include extra time.
Argentina 3-Way Moneyline: -145
Switzerland 3-Way Moneyline: +450
Draw: +255
Argentina to advance: -310
Switzerland to advance: +240
Over 2.5 Goals: +120
Under 2.5 Goals: -150
Keys to Argentina vs. Switzerland Matchup
For Argentina, it is going to start in the midfield. Switzerland relies on a compact defense, anchored by Granit Xhaka. Argentina is tied for the tournament lead in goals, having scored 14 times. They can also score quickly and in bunches. Argentina leads the tournament in expected goals so far in the World Cup, with an expected goals value of 11.91 goals. They have also exceeded that by over two goals so far. The offense will begin with Enzo Fernandez and Alexis Mac Allister working to move the Swiss defense out of shape. If they can do that, Messi will be open in front, which will lead to goals.
While Argentina scores well, the defense has been great. They have forced 219 turnovers so far, which places them ninth in the tournament. They have also given up very few opportunities. Emiliano Martinez has faced just nine shots on target, but has just four saves. Argentina needs to keep opportunities for Switzerland to a minimum.
For Switzerland, they need to slow down Argentina’s midfield, along with Messi. The defense has been solid, giving up just three goals so far in the tournament, with one of them being an own goal. They have also been stellar at forcing turnovers so far, especially in the midfield. The Swiss are third in the tournament in forced turnovers. As long as Switzerland can deny opportunities to push the ball to Messi, they have a chance.
On the offensive side of the pitch, they need to expose the flanks of Argentina. The fullbacks push high up the pitch, which creates space on the wings. Dan Ndoye and Ruben Vargas have been stellar in pushing the pace so far in the tournament. If they can employ the strategy they used to score four quick goals against Bosnia-Herzegovina, they should be able to find a goal.
Argentina vs. Switzerland Prediction and Pick
Since the 2014 World Cup, Argentina has been great at avoiding upsets overall. In 2014, they made it to the Final, and with their only loss of the tournament coming in extra time to Germany in the Final. Argentina did struggle more in 2018, but still advanced to the Round of 16. Still, they fell 4-3 to France in the Round of 16. France would go on to win the World Cup. In 2022, Argentina did not lose after an opening loss to Saudi Arabia in the Group Stage. Further, Messi has been great in the Knockout Stage. In 2022, he scored five goals in the Knock Out stage, while already having two so far this year. Slowing down Messi when Argentina needs him most is going to be nearly impossible for Switzerland.
Meanwhile, Switzerland has never been to the semifinals at the World Cup. The last time Switzerland was in the quarterfinals was in 1954. This is the greatest run Switzerland has made in 70-years, and they have done it through grit and solid play. Still, they have not faced a team of the quality of Argentina yet, and that will be their undoing. Argentina takes the win in a low-scoring game.
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Final Argentina vs. Switzerland 2026 World Cup Prediction and Pick
Argentina 3-way ML (-145)
Under 2.5 (-150)